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Acadian Timber

ADN.TO
40
Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Basic Materials
Price
C$17.10
-0.03 (-0.18%)
Market Cap
C$315.6M
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange
Winston Score
40
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Weak
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Mixed
Stability
Good
Valuation
Good
Dividends
Good

Share count rising — dilution

+8.8% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 16.7M (2021) → 18.2M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Acadian Timber Corp. is a Canadian company that owns and manages large areas of forest land in New Brunswick and Maine. It harvests trees and sells softwood and hardwood timber, as well as biomass material used for energy. Its main customers are sawmills, pulp and paper mills, and wood product manufacturers in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.

Acadian makes money by selling timber and logs directly from its roughly 2.5 million acres of timberlands, operating as an income-focused business that pays out most of its cash to shareholders as dividends. Its land ownership is the core competitive advantage — timberland is a finite, physical asset that is hard to replicate. However, the company is small and its revenue is closely tied to lumber and pulp markets, which are cyclical and can drop sharply during housing slowdowns or weak paper demand. The main risk is that falling timber prices or reduced mill demand could pressure cash flows and threaten its dividend.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-15.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-52.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

C$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (3%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

52.4%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

C$4M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Acadian Timber's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
21.4%
Thin — 21.4% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
5.7%
Thin — 5.7% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
2.6%
Weak — 2.6% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-5.9%
Shrinking sales (-5.9% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+219.8%
Earnings growing fast (+219.8% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
21%
Weak — only 21% of profit becomes cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
11.5%
Modest free cash flow (11.5%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.32
Conservative — low debt load (0.32)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
2.81x
Tight — interest eats into profit (2.8x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
6.6x
Attractive valuation — P/E 6.6

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
-15.4
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
6.78%
Healthy income — 6.78% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+0.0%
Dividend flat

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