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Advantage Energy

AAV.TO
55
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy
Also trades as: AAVVF
Price
C$11.20
+0.10 (+0.90%)
Market Cap
C$1.88B
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange
Winston Score
55
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Good
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Good
Stability
Good
Valuation
Strong
Dividends
Good

Share count falling — buybacks

14.3% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 198.6M (2021) → 170.2M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Advantage Energy is a Canadian oil and gas company that drills for and produces natural gas and natural gas liquids. Its main asset is the Montney Formation in Alberta, one of the largest and lowest-cost natural gas reservoirs in North America. The company sells its gas primarily to wholesale energy buyers and utilities across Canadian and export markets.

Advantage makes money by selling the natural gas and liquids it extracts from the ground, so its revenue rises and falls with commodity prices. It operates entirely in western Canada and has a market cap of roughly $1.7 billion. The company's low-cost Montney acreage gives it a cost advantage over producers in more expensive basins, but its thin operating margin of 12% shows how exposed it is to price swings. The key growth driver is expanding its Montney production capacity, while the main risk is a prolonged drop in natural gas prices, which would quickly pressure cash flows and returns.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+22.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-37.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

C$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

13.9%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Runway

~14 months

C$102M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Growth context

Advantage Energy is growing revenue at 23% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
58.9%
Premium pricing power — 58.9% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
19.6%
Healthy — 19.6% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
3.8%
Weak — 3.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+3.5%
Slow sales growth (+3.5% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+58.2%
Earnings growing fast (+58.2% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
3/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
447%
Turns 447% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
-19.5%
Burning cash (-19.5%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.51
Conservative — low debt load (0.51)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
1.74x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.7x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
22.1x
Growth-priced — P/E 22.1

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+13.9
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (22.1 → 8.2)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
4.32%
Healthy income — 4.32% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
-33.3%
Dividend cut (-33.3% YoY) — warning sign

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