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Alcoa Corporation

AAI.AX
57
Aluminum · Basic Materials
Exchange
Australian Securities Exchange
Winston Score
57
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Good
Growth
Strong
Cash Flow
Good
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Strong
Dividends
Weak

Winston Score History

The full picture

Alcoa is one of the largest aluminum companies in the world. It mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and then smelts alumina into aluminum metal. Its customers include manufacturers in the aerospace, automotive, packaging, and construction industries who use aluminum to make planes, cars, cans, and buildings.

Alcoa makes money by selling alumina and aluminum as commodities, meaning prices fluctuate with global supply and demand. The company operates mines, refineries, and smelters across Australia, Brazil, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and the United States, generating roughly $10–11 billion in annual revenue. Its competitive position comes partly from owning large, low-cost bauxite deposits and integrated operations from mine to metal. The biggest risk Alcoa faces is aluminum price volatility — when prices fall, margins shrink quickly, as the thin gross margin of around 13% already shows. Energy costs are also a major expense, since smelting aluminum requires enormous amounts of electricity.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+28.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

+138.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Strong earnings growth

Insider Activity

0.4%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

A$3.4B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue accelerating

Alcoa Corporation grew revenue 28% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
20.8%
Thin — 20.8% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
18.0%
Healthy — 18.0% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
22.1%
Exceptional — 22.1% return on capital

ROIC between 15% and 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns 15 to 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+5.7%
Slow sales growth (+5.7% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+24.1%
Earnings growing fast (+24.1% YoY)

Healthy double-digit earnings growth — what compounders look like.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
7/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
96%
Turns 96% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
3.7%
Thin free cash flow (3.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.30
Conservative — low debt load (0.30)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
17.80x
Comfortably covers interest (17.8x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
10.5x
no trend
Attractive valuation — P/E 10.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+3.0
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
0.78%
no trend
Small dividend — 0.78% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
-15.9%
no trend
Dividend cut (-15.9% YoY) — warning sign

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