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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

AMBP
43
Packaging & Containers · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$5.36
+0.11 (+2.10%)
Market Cap
$3.20B
Winston Score
43
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Weak
Growth
Good
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Weak
Valuation
Good
Dividends
Good

Share count rising — dilution

+10.9% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 538.8M (2021) → 597.7M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Ardagh Metal Packaging makes aluminum cans used to hold drinks like beer, energy drinks, and sparkling water. Their customers are beverage companies — think large brewers, soda brands, and energy drink makers — who need billions of cans every year. The company is one of the larger aluminum beverage can producers in the world, operating across Europe and the Americas.

Ardagh earns money by selling cans in bulk under long-term contracts with beverage companies, which provides fairly predictable revenue. It operates dozens of manufacturing plants across the United States, Brazil, and several European countries, making it a sizable global supplier. The company carries a heavy debt load from past expansion, which is its most significant financial risk — rising interest rates or a slowdown in beverage demand could make that debt harder to manage. Growth depends on continued consumer demand for canned drinks, particularly in categories like hard seltzer and energy drinks, which have driven can volume in recent years.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+17.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

>+1,000% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

77.0%ownership

Rising

Insiders increasing their stake — aligned with shareholders

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$197M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 18%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
11.9%
Thin — 11.9% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
6.9%
Modest — 6.9% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
3.3%
Weak — 3.3% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+14.5%
Fast-growing sales (+14.5% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
N/A
Data not available
How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
1207%
Turns 1207% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
5.0%
Thin free cash flow (5.0%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
N/A
Data not available
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
1.50x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.5x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
103.5x
Expensive — P/E 103.5

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+86.1
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (103.5 → 17.4)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
8.46%
Healthy income — 8.46% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+0.0%
Dividend flat

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