Assured Guaranty

AGO

Insurance - Specialty · Financial Services

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

How the score breaks down

Quality

Weak

Growth

Weak

Cash Flow

Strong

Stability

Good

Valuation

Good

Dividends

Strong

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Winston Score History

The full picture

Assured Guaranty is an insurance company that promises to pay bondholders if a bond issuer stops making payments. Its main customers are governments, cities, and other public entities that issue bonds to raise money for things like roads, schools, and utilities. The company is one of the few remaining financial guaranty insurers still active in the United States.

Assured Guaranty earns money by collecting insurance premiums from bond issuers in exchange for wrapping their bonds with a guarantee. It operates mainly in the U.S. municipal bond market but also insures some international infrastructure and structured finance deals. Its competitive position comes from being one of only a handful of companies with the financial strength and regulatory approvals to offer this type of guarantee, which creates a high barrier to entry. The key risk the company faces is a wave of municipal defaults, which could force large payouts and strain its capital reserves.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-29.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-100.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

6.2%ownership

→ Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$7.1B cash & investments

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Assured Guaranty's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale

Gross Margin

0.0%

Thin — 0.0% gross margin

Profit after running costs

Operating Margin

0.0%

Thin — 0.0% operating margin

Return on the money invested

ROCE

4.6%

Weak — 4.6% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth

Sales YoY

-13.8%

Shrinking sales (-13.8% YoY)

Profit growth

EPS YoY

-29.5%

Earnings shrinking (-29.5% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash

Cash Conversion

92%

Modest — 92% of profit becomes cash

Spare cash per sale

FCF Margin

37.3%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (37.3%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns

Debt / Equity

0.31

Conservative — low debt load (0.31)

Covers its interest

Interest Cover

3.80x

Tight — interest eats into profit (3.8x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit

P/E Ratio (TTM)

11.5x

no trend

Attractive valuation — P/E 11.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year

P/E vs Forward

+0.2

GROWING

Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Dividend

Dividend Yield

2.04%

no trend

Moderate income — 2.04% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record

Dividend Growth

+11.3%

no trend

Dividend growing fast (11.3% YoY)

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