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Bavarian Nordic A/S

BAVA.CO
49
Biotechnology · Healthcare
Exchange
NASDAQ Copenhagen
Winston Score
49
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Mar 31, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Mixed
Growth
Weak
Cash Flow
Exceptional
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Good

Winston Score History

The full picture

Bavarian Nordic is a Danish biotechnology company that makes vaccines to protect people from serious infectious diseases. Its most important product is Jynneos, a vaccine approved to prevent both mpox (monkeypox) and smallpox, making it the only approved non-replicating smallpox vaccine in the world. The company also sells travel vaccines, including shots for rabies, cholera, and typhoid fever, after acquiring that portfolio from Emergent BioSolutions.

Bavarian Nordic earns money by selling vaccines to governments, public health agencies, and travelers through clinics and pharmacies. It operates primarily in Europe and North America, and its government stockpiling contracts — especially with the U.S. and European health authorities — provide a relatively stable revenue base. The company's main growth driver is continued global demand for mpox vaccines, but its biggest risk is that government procurement orders can be unpredictable, causing revenue to swing sharply from year to year depending on outbreak severity and policy decisions.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
44.9%
Healthy — 44.9% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
-0.6%
Losing money on operations — -0.6%
Return on the money invested
ROCE
11.8%
Below par — 11.8% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-5.0%
Shrinking sales (-5.0% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-12.8%
Earnings shrinking (-12.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
201%
Turns 201% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
23.2%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (23.2%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.00
Conservative — low debt load (0.00)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
128.19x
Comfortably covers interest (128.2x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
10.6x
no trend
Attractive valuation — P/E 10.6

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
-3.5
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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