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Carrier Global

4PN.DE
41
Industrial - Machinery · Industrials
Price
€51.92
-0.16 (-0.31%)
Market Cap
€42.80B
Exchange
Frankfurt Stock Exchange
Winston Score
41
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Mixed
Growth
Weak
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Good
Valuation
Good
Dividends
Mixed

Share count falling — buybacks

3.1% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 890.3M (2021) → 862.4M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Carrier Global makes heating, cooling, and refrigeration equipment. Its main products include air conditioners, heat pumps, and cold storage systems sold under the Carrier brand. The company serves homeowners, commercial buildings, and industrial customers, and is one of the largest HVAC manufacturers in the world.

Carrier earns most of its revenue by selling equipment directly, with a growing portion coming from services, parts, and software subscriptions tied to building management systems. It operates globally, with significant sales in North America, Europe, and Asia, and generates roughly $22 billion in annual revenue. The company's brand recognition and large installed base of equipment create some switching costs, since customers often return to the same brand for repairs and replacements. The key growth driver is rising global demand for energy-efficient cooling, partly fueled by climate change and heat pump adoption in Europe, though higher interest rates that slow construction activity remain a meaningful near-term risk.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
27.2%
Modest — 27.2% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
12.1%
Healthy — 12.1% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
6.4%
Weak — 6.4% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-1.6%
Shrinking sales (-1.6% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-67.8%
Earnings shrinking (-67.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
3/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
196%
Turns 196% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
8.7%
Modest free cash flow (8.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.91
Moderate — manageable debt (0.91)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
3.56x
Tight — interest eats into profit (3.6x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
35.7x
Pricey — P/E 35.7

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+18.9
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (35.7 → 16.8)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
1.58%
Small dividend — 1.58% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+3.7%
Dividend growing modestly (3.7% YoY)

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