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CF Industries Holdings

CF
76
Agricultural Inputs · Basic Materials
Also trades as: 0HQU.L GBP 1.15 (+0.21%)
Price
$113.58
-0.86 (-0.75%)
after-hours:$115.02+1.27%
Market Cap
$17.45B
Winston Score
76
Winston is happy
A high-quality business with solid fundamentals.
Data as of Oct 9, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

§How the score breaks down

Quality
Exceptional
26/30
Growth
Exceptional
20/20
Cash Flow
Exceptional
10/10
Stability
Exceptional
9/10
Valuation
Good
6/10
Ownership
Weak
2/15
Dividends
Good
3/5

76 of 100 counted points = Winston Score 76.

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Share count falling — buybacks

−25.0% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 216.2M (2021) → 162.2M (2025)

§Winston Score History

The full picture

CF Industries makes fertilizers that farmers use to help crops grow. Its main product is nitrogen fertilizer — especially ammonia and urea — which it sells to farmers, farm cooperatives, and agricultural distributors across North America. It is one of the largest nitrogen fertilizer producers in the world.

The company makes money by manufacturing and selling fertilizer products, so its profits rise and fall with fertilizer prices and natural gas costs, since natural gas is the key ingredient used to make nitrogen fertilizer. CF Industries operates large production plants mostly in the United States, with some facilities in the United Kingdom and Canada, generating roughly $6–7 billion in annual revenue. Its low-cost U.S. production network gives it a cost advantage over many foreign competitors, but the biggest risk it faces is a sharp drop in global fertilizer prices or a spike in natural gas prices, either of which can quickly squeeze its margins.

Politician Trades

3 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 1 sell on CF in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+17.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+100.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (3%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.7%ownership

→ Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$2.5B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

CF Industries Holdings is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 18%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

Each metric is explained in plain language so you know exactly what you're looking at. Start your free trial now.

Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
51.5%
Healthy — 51.5% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
47.3%
Excellent — 47.3% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
32.9%
Exceptional — 32.9% return on capital

ROIC above 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns more than 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+20.0%
Fast-growing sales (+20.0% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+76.5%
Earnings growing fast (+76.5% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
8/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
142%
Turns 142% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
24.7%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (24.7%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.56
Conservative — low debt load (0.56)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
17.25x
Comfortably covers interest (17.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
8.4x
Attractive valuation — P/E 8.4

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
-4.9
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
2.08%
Moderate income — 2.08% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+5.0%
Dividend growing modestly (5.0% YoY)

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