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China XLX Fertiliser

1866.HK
48
Agricultural Inputs · Basic Materials
Price
HK$10.45
+0.03 (+0.29%)
Market Cap
HK$13.32B
Exchange
Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Winston Score
48
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Oct 8, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

§How the score breaks down

Quality
Mixed
8/30
Growth
Mixed
7/20
Cash Flow
Good
6/10
Stability
Good
5/10
Valuation
Strong
8/10
Ownership
Good
10/15
Dividends
Strong
4/5

48 of 100 counted points = Winston Score 48.

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Share count rising — dilution

+6.5% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 1.17B (2021) → 1.25B (2025)

§Winston Score History

The full picture

China XLX Fertiliser is one of China's largest producers of urea and compound fertilizers. Its products help farmers grow crops by providing essential nutrients to soil. The company also manufactures melamine, an industrial chemical used in laminates, coatings, and plastics, which diversifies its revenue beyond agriculture.

China XLX makes money by selling fertilizers and melamine to domestic customers across China, with some export sales. It operates large-scale coal-based production facilities in Henan province, and its size gives it cost advantages over smaller competitors. Revenue depends heavily on urea and compound fertilizer pricing, which can swing with coal input costs, government policy, and seasonal farming demand. A key growth opportunity is rising demand for higher-efficiency compound fertilizers, but the business faces ongoing risk from volatile raw material costs and potential changes in Chinese agricultural subsidy policies.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+22.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+52.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

¥0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (3%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

55.7%ownership

→ Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Runway

~6 months

¥3.1B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Cash watch

China XLX Fertiliser has less than a year of cash at its current burn rate. Growth investors should watch for potential share dilution from future fundraising — that directly reduces your ownership.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
19.3%
Thin — 19.3% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
10.3%
Modest — 10.3% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
7.6%
Weak — 7.6% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+18.9%
Fast-growing sales (+18.9% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-10.7%
Earnings shrinking (-10.7% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
232%
Turns 232% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
-10.4%
Burning cash (-10.4%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
1.91
Elevated debt (1.91)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
4.50x
Adequate interest coverage (4.5x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
10.4x
Attractive valuation — P/E 10.4

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+3.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (10.4 → 7.2)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
3.48%
Moderate income — 3.48% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+108.8%
Dividend growing fast (108.8% YoY)

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