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Computer Modelling Group

CMG.TO
59
Software - Application · Technology
Price
C$4.05
+0.13 (+3.32%)
Market Cap
C$315.9M
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange
Winston Score
59
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Exceptional
Growth
Weak
Cash Flow
Exceptional
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Good
Dividends
Weak

Share count rising — dilution

+3.0% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 80.6M (2022) → 83.0M (2026)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Computer Modelling Group (CMG) makes software that helps oil and gas companies simulate what is happening underground in their reservoirs. Energy companies use this software to figure out how to extract oil and gas more efficiently before spending billions of dollars drilling. CMG is a Canadian company and one of the few specialized providers of reservoir simulation software in the world.

CMG earns most of its revenue through annual software licenses and maintenance fees, which creates a steady, recurring income stream. It sells to oil and gas producers and engineering consultants across more than 60 countries, with strong presence in Canada, the United States, Latin America, and the Middle East. Its deep technical expertise and the high cost of switching software give it a durable competitive position, but its growth is closely tied to oil and gas industry spending — when energy companies cut budgets, demand for CMG's software tends to fall as well.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
70.6%
Premium pricing power — 70.6% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
14.8%
Healthy — 14.8% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
28.0%
Exceptional — 28.0% return on capital

ROIC above 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns more than 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-3.2%
Shrinking sales (-3.2% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-29.0%
Earnings shrinking (-29.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
132%
Turns 132% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
14.6%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (14.6%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.15
Conservative — low debt load (0.15)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
11.23x
Comfortably covers interest (11.2x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
21.5x
Growth-priced — P/E 21.5

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+5.6
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (21.5 → 15.9)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
1.06%
Small dividend — 1.06% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
-75.0%
Dividend cut (-75.0% YoY) — warning sign

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