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Greggs

GRG.L
60
Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical
Price
1,838.00 GBp
+27.00 (+1.49%)
Market Cap
£1.87B
Exchange
London Stock Exchange
Winston Score
60
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Strong
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Good
Dividends
Strong

Winston Score History

The full picture

Greggs is a British bakery chain that sells affordable food and drinks directly to everyday consumers. Its most popular products include sausage rolls, baked goods, sandwiches, and hot drinks. Greggs is the largest bakery chain in the United Kingdom, with over 2,500 shops across the country, and it owns and operates all of its stores rather than franchising them.

The company makes money by selling food and drinks directly in its shops, with no subscription or licensing model. Nearly all revenue comes from the UK, making it a purely domestic business. Greggs has a strong moat built on low prices, high store density, and a loyal customer base that associates the brand with value and convenience. The key growth driver is continued store expansion, particularly into travel hubs, retail parks, and evening trading hours, while the main risk is cost pressure from food and labor inflation, which can squeeze its already thin operating margins.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+7.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+19.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady EPS growth

R&D Spend

£0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

1.7%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

£31M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Greggs is growing revenue at 7% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

0.3% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 102.7M (2021) → 102.5M (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
62.0%
Premium pricing power — 62.0% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
7.9%
Modest — 7.9% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
28.2%
Exceptional — 28.2% return on capital

ROIC above 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns more than 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+6.9%
Slow sales growth (+6.9% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-9.2%
Earnings shrinking (-9.2% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
5/8 quarters
Mixed — about half the quarters showed growth

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
269%
Turns 269% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
8.4%
Modest free cash flow (8.4%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.12
Conservative — low debt load (0.12)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
9.42x
Comfortably covers interest (9.4x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
14.2x
Attractive valuation — P/E 14.2

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+0.5
GROWING
Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
3.55%
Moderate income — 3.55% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+54.9%
Dividend growing fast (54.9% YoY)

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