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Headwater Exploration

HWX.TO
67
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy
Price
C$14.22
+0.13 (+0.92%)
Market Cap
C$3.38B
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange
Winston Score
67
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Exceptional
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Exceptional
Stability
Good
Valuation
Strong
Dividends
Good

Share count rising — dilution

+11.1% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 215.9M (2021) → 239.9M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Headwater Exploration is a Canadian oil and gas company that finds and produces crude oil and natural gas. Its main asset is the Marten Hills area in Alberta, where it produces a type of heavy oil called Cold Lake crude. The company sells its oil to refiners and energy marketers, primarily in Western Canada.

Headwater makes money by selling the oil and gas it pumps out of the ground. It operates almost entirely in Alberta, Canada, making it a focused, single-country producer. The company keeps costs low by using a drilling technique called cold heavy oil production with sand, or CHOPS, which does not require expensive steam or heat to extract oil — this gives it a cost advantage over many peers. With a strong balance sheet and no long-term debt, Headwater has room to keep drilling new wells, but its biggest risk is that falling oil prices would directly reduce its revenue and profits since it has little control over commodity prices.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+64.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

+125.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

C$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

6.4%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

C$88M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue accelerating

Headwater Exploration grew revenue 64% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
58.9%
Premium pricing power — 58.9% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
45.8%
Excellent — 45.8% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
32.1%
Exceptional — 32.1% return on capital

ROIC above 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns more than 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+10.1%
Steady sales growth (+10.1% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+0.0%
Flat earnings

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
3/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
180%
Turns 180% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
15.3%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (15.3%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
N/A
Data not available
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
251.46x
Comfortably covers interest (251.5x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
18.2x
Fair value — P/E 18.2

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+9.5
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (18.2 → 8.7)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
3.51%
Moderate income — 3.51% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+7.0%
Dividend growing modestly (7.0% YoY)

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