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Holmen AB

HOLM-A.ST
45
Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Basic Materials
Price
kr 320.00
-2.00 (-0.62%)
Market Cap
kr 50.44B
Exchange
Stockholm Stock Exchange
Winston Score
45
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Weak
Growth
Weak
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Mixed
Dividends
Strong

Share count falling — buybacks

4.6% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 161.9M (2021) → 154.4M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Holmen AB is a Swedish forest products company that owns and manages large areas of forest land in Sweden and sells wood-based products. Its main businesses include paper for printing and packaging, paperboard used in food and consumer goods packaging, and sawn timber sold to construction and furniture makers. Holmen is one of the larger integrated forest companies in the Nordic region, meaning it controls its own raw material supply from forest to finished product.

The company earns revenue by selling physical goods — paper, paperboard, and wood products — primarily to customers in Europe. Owning roughly one million hectares of forest in Sweden gives Holmen a meaningful cost advantage over competitors who must buy timber on the open market. However, the business is exposed to cyclical swings in paper and timber demand, as well as long-term structural decline in graphic paper volumes as print media shrinks. Growth in renewable packaging materials and timber for construction could partially offset that pressure over time.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
-0.7%
Thin — -0.7% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
7.2%
Modest — 7.2% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
3.5%
Weak — 3.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-4.7%
Shrinking sales (-4.7% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+0.8%
Flat earnings

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
130%
Turns 130% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
8.7%
Modest free cash flow (8.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.13
Conservative — low debt load (0.13)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
12.90x
Comfortably covers interest (12.9x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
18.5x
Fair value — P/E 18.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
-0.3
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
2.99%
Moderate income — 2.99% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+50.8%
Dividend growing fast (50.8% YoY)

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