Kelt Exploration

KEL.TO

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy

Price

C$10.17

+0.14 (+1.40%)

Market Cap

C$2.06B

Exchange

Toronto Stock Exchange

Winston Score

Winston is curious

A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

How the score breaks down

Quality

Mixed

Growth

Mixed

Cash Flow

Good

Stability

Strong

Valuation

Good

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Share count rising — dilution

+5.9% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 190.8M (2021) → 202.1M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Kelt Exploration Ltd. is a Canadian oil and gas company that finds and produces crude oil and natural gas. It operates primarily in British Columbia and Alberta, focusing on the Montney formation — one of the largest natural gas and condensate-rich plays in North America. The company sells its production to energy marketers, refiners, and utilities.

Kelt makes money by selling the oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids it pulls out of the ground. It is a mid-size Canadian producer with a market cap around $2.1 billion, and its competitive position rests on its large undeveloped land base in the Montney, which gives it a long runway of future drilling locations. However, its relatively low margins and ROIC suggest the business is sensitive to commodity price swings, and falling natural gas prices remain the key risk to profitability and cash flow.

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+66.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

+37.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

C$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

18.5%ownership

→ Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Runway

~0 months

C$3M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Revenue accelerating

Kelt Exploration grew revenue 66% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale

Gross Margin

32.4%

Modest — 32.4% gross margin

Profit after running costs

Operating Margin

30.0%

Excellent — 30.0% operating margin

Return on the money invested

ROCE

7.2%

Weak — 7.2% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth

Sales YoY

+23.1%

Fast-growing sales (+23.1% YoY)

Profit growth

EPS YoY

-24.2%

Earnings shrinking (-24.2% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash

Cash Conversion

546%

Turns 546% of profit into real cash

Spare cash per sale

FCF Margin

-12.4%

Burning cash (-12.4%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns

Debt / Equity

0.16

Conservative — low debt load (0.16)

Covers its interest

Interest Cover

7.96x

Adequate interest coverage (8.0x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit

P/E Ratio (TTM)

36.1x

Pricey — P/E 36.1

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year

P/E vs Forward

+23.5

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (36.1 → 12.6)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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