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Luckin Coffee

LKNCY
71
Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$35.70
-0.64 (-1.76%)
Market Cap
$11.43B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
71
Winston is happy
A high-quality business with solid fundamentals.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Strong
Growth
Good
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Good

Share count rising — dilution

+20.2% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 33.4M (2021) → 40.1M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Luckin Coffee is a Chinese coffee chain that sells affordable lattes, milk teas, and other drinks through thousands of small pickup-focused stores across China. Its customers are mostly young urban workers who order ahead on a smartphone app and grab their drinks quickly without waiting in a traditional café line. Luckin is one of the largest coffee chains in China by store count, having surpassed Starbucks China in number of locations.

The company makes money by selling drinks directly to customers, with a heavy reliance on its app for ordering and digital promotions to drive repeat purchases. Luckin operates almost entirely within China, and its low-cost, tech-driven model gives it a cost advantage over foreign competitors. As of its most recent fiscal data, it generates solid gross margins above 50%, but thin operating margins leave little room for error. The key growth driver is expanding into lower-tier Chinese cities, while intense domestic competition and a history of accounting fraud remain meaningful risks for investors.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+29.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Strong revenue growth

EPS Growth

+19.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady EPS growth

R&D Spend

¥0/ year

Declining (-100% vs prior year)

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

25.8%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

¥11.6B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Strong grower

Luckin Coffee is growing revenue at 29% year-over-year. The Winston Score penalises unprofitable companies, but revenue at this pace tells a different story — this is a company still in "build mode."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
58.5%
Premium pricing power — 58.5% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
13.5%
Healthy — 13.5% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
23.7%
Exceptional — 23.7% return on capital

ROIC between 15% and 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns 15 to 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+36.4%
Fast-growing sales (+36.4% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-4.0%
Earnings shrinking (-4.0% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
5/8 quarters
Mixed — about half the quarters showed growth

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
159%
Turns 159% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
9.7%
Modest free cash flow (9.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.28
Conservative — low debt load (0.28)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
2815.59x
Comfortably covers interest (2815.6x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
20.8x
Growth-priced — P/E 20.8

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+4.9
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (20.8 → 15.9)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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