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MDA

MDA.TO
38
Aerospace & Defense · Industrials
Price
C$42.62
-0.45 (-1.04%)
Market Cap
C$5.91B
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange
Winston Score
38
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Weak
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Weak
Stability
Strong
Valuation
Good

Share count rising — dilution

+9.3% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 118.7M (2021) → 129.7M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

MDA Ltd. is a Canadian space technology company that builds satellites, robotic systems, and ground infrastructure for space missions. Its most famous product is the Canadarm robotic arm, used on the International Space Station, and it also makes satellite components and Earth observation systems. Its main customers are government space agencies like NASA and the Canadian Space Agency, as well as commercial satellite operators.

MDA earns revenue by winning long-term government and commercial contracts to design, build, and operate space hardware and services. The company operates primarily in Canada, with some international contracts, and generated roughly $1 billion in annual revenue in recent years. Its moat comes from deep technical expertise and long-standing government relationships that are hard for new competitors to break into. The key growth driver is rising global demand for satellites and space infrastructure, though the business faces risk from contract delays, cost overruns, and dependence on a relatively small number of large government customers.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+33.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Strong revenue growth

EPS Growth

-9.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

C$83M/ year

Rising (+36% vs prior year)

5.1% of revenue

In line with sector average (4%)

R&D investment increasing — building for the future

Insider Activity

9.0%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Runway

~8 months

C$408M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Strong grower

MDA is growing revenue at 34% year-over-year. The Winston Score penalises unprofitable companies, but revenue at this pace tells a different story — this is a company still in "build mode."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
18.9%
Thin — 18.9% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
4.5%
Thin — 4.5% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
4.8%
Weak — 4.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+38.3%
Fast-growing sales (+38.3% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-14.7%
Earnings shrinking (-14.7% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
52%
Weak — only 52% of profit becomes cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
-8.2%
Burning cash (-8.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.13
Conservative — low debt load (0.13)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
5.09x
Adequate interest coverage (5.1x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
52.6x
no trend
Expensive — P/E 52.6

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+33.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (52.6 → 19.4)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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