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Moderna

MRNA
23
Biotechnology · Healthcare
Price
$218.01
-18.49 (-7.82%)
Market Cap
$87.04B
Exchange
NASDAQ
Winston Score
23
Winston is worried
Weak fundamentals across most pillars.
Data as of Oct 18, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

§How the score breaks down

Quality
Weak
4/30
Growth
Mixed
5/20
Cash Flow
Weak
0/10
Stability
Good
5/10
Valuation
Data not available
0/10
Ownership
Good
8/15
Dividends
Not counted
n/a

22 of 95 counted points = Winston Score 23. Pillars marked n/a do not apply to this company and are left out of the total.

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Share count falling — buybacks

−9.7% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 431.0M (2021) → 389.0M (2025)

§Winston Score History

The full picture

Moderna is a biotechnology company that makes vaccines and medicines using a technology called mRNA, which teaches the body's cells to fight diseases. Its most well-known product is the COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax), which was one of the first mRNA vaccines ever approved for widespread use. The company sells primarily to governments and public health agencies around the world.

Moderna earns money by selling its vaccines directly to governments and, increasingly, through commercial pharmacy channels. It operates globally but generates most of its revenue in the United States and Europe, and it has a strong patent portfolio around its mRNA technology that provides some protection from competitors. However, COVID-19 vaccine demand has fallen sharply since its peak, and the company is currently losing money — its main challenge is successfully launching new mRNA products, like its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and a personalized cancer vaccine, to replace lost COVID revenue before its cash reserves run low.

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12 trades / 12mo

6 Congressional buys and 6 sells on MRNA in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+2.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+8.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$3.1B/ year

↓ Declining (-31% vs prior year)

161.1% of revenue

9.0x the sector average (18%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

6.2%ownership

→ Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Runway

~3 years

$7.1B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

$7.1B cash & investments at current burn rate

Growth context

Moderna is growing revenue at 2% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
35.9%
Modest — 35.9% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
-562.1%
Losing money on operations — -562.1%
Return on the money invested
ROCE
-44.8%
Weak — -44.8% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-27.2%
Shrinking sales (-27.2% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
N/A
Data not available
How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
5/8 quarters
Mixed — about half the quarters showed growth

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
N/A
Data not available
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
-54.9%
Burning cash (-54.9%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.10
Conservative — low debt load (0.10)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
N/A
Data not available

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/M
Negative earnings — P/E not meaningful
Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
N/A
not available
Data not available

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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