Novavax

NVAX

Biotechnology · Healthcare

Price

$8.94

+0.52 (+6.18%)

Market Cap

$1.47B

Exchange

NASDAQ

Winston Score

Winston is worried

Weak fundamentals across most pillars.

Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

How the score breaks down

Quality

Mixed

Growth

Weak

Cash Flow

Weak

Stability

Data not available

Valuation

Data not available

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Share count rising — dilution

+132.7% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 74.4M (2021) → 173.1M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-76.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-148.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$337M/ year

↓ Declining (-14% vs prior year)

30.0% of revenue

1.7x the sector average (18%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

14.0%ownership

→ Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Runway

~2 years

$719M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

$719M cash & investments at current burn rate

Revenue declining

Novavax's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale

Gross Margin

74.9%

Premium pricing power — 74.9% gross margin

Profit after running costs

Operating Margin

-96.8%

Losing money on operations — -96.8%

Return on the money invested

ROCE

-51.5%

Weak — -51.5% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

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Growth

Sales growth

Sales YoY

-61.6%

Shrinking sales (-61.6% YoY)

Profit growth

EPS YoY

-158.2%

Earnings shrinking (-158.2% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash

Cash Conversion

N/A

Data not available

Spare cash per sale

FCF Margin

-10.5%

Burning cash (-10.5%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns

Debt / Equity

N/A

Data not available

Covers its interest

Interest Cover

N/A

Data not available

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Valuation

Price vs profit

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/M

Negative earnings — P/E not meaningful

Cheaper or dearer next year

P/E vs Forward

N/A

not available

Data not available

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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