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NuVista Energy

NVA.TO
62
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy
Price
C$19.04
+0.26 (+1.38%)
Market Cap
C$3.69B
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange
Winston Score
62
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Sep 30, 2025
How the score breaks down
Quality
Strong
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Strong

Share count falling — buybacks

7.4% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 225.7M (2020) → 208.9M (2024)

Winston Score History

The full picture

NuVista Energy is a Canadian oil and gas company that drills for and produces condensate-rich natural gas in Alberta, Canada. Its main product is condensate, a light liquid hydrocarbon that oil sands producers use to thin their heavy crude so it can flow through pipelines. NuVista operates almost entirely in the Montney formation, one of the largest natural gas and condensate plays in North America.

The company makes money by selling condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids to energy producers and commodity buyers. It operates solely in western Canada, making it a mid-size regional producer with a market cap around $3.7 billion. Its focus on the Montney gives it access to low-cost, high-quality rock, but the business is heavily exposed to commodity price swings — if condensate or natural gas prices fall sharply, revenue and cash flow drop quickly. The key growth driver is continued drilling and expanding production capacity within its existing Montney land base.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
71.6%
Premium pricing power — 71.6% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
24.3%
Excellent — 24.3% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
10.1%
Below par — 10.1% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+0.1%
Nearly flat sales (+0.1% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+14.1%
Earnings growing (+14.1% YoY)

Healthy double-digit earnings growth — what compounders look like.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
3/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
164%
Turns 164% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
6.7%
Modest free cash flow (6.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.13
Conservative — low debt load (0.13)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
8.02x
Comfortably covers interest (8.0x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.8x
Attractive valuation — P/E 11.8

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+2.0
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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