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Origin Energy Limited

ORG.AX
46
Oil & Gas Integrated · Energy
Also trades as: OGFGF
Exchange
Australian Securities Exchange
Winston Score
46
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Mixed
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Strong
Valuation
Good
Dividends
Exceptional

Winston Score History

The full picture

Origin Energy is one of Australia's largest energy companies. It produces and sells natural gas and electricity to millions of homes and businesses across Australia. The company owns a major stake in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG), which extracts natural gas in Queensland and exports it as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to customers in Asia.

Origin makes money in two main ways: selling energy directly to retail customers through its energy markets business, and earning revenue from LNG exports through its APLNG stake. It operates almost entirely in Australia, with LNG export ties to Asian markets. The company's large retail customer base and long-term LNG supply contracts provide some stability, but its thin margins show how competitive and cost-heavy the energy business is. The key risk Origin faces is the energy transition — as Australia shifts toward renewables, Origin must invest heavily in cleaner energy sources or risk losing relevance in a rapidly changing market.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
10.6%
Thin — 10.6% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
8.5%
Modest — 8.5% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
8.8%
Below par — 8.8% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-10.3%
Shrinking sales (-10.3% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+5.8%
Modest earnings growth (+5.8% YoY)

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
167%
Turns 167% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
11.2%
Modest free cash flow (11.2%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.39
Conservative — low debt load (0.39)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
7.26x
Adequate interest coverage (7.3x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
13.1x
no trend
Attractive valuation — P/E 13.1

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
-6.3
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
5.06%
no trend
Healthy income — 5.06% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+14.1%
no trend
Dividend growing fast (14.1% YoY)

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