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PROG Holdings

PRG
52
Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services
Price
$38.77
+0.57 (+1.49%)
Market Cap
$1.54B
Winston Score
52
Winston is curious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Good
Growth
Mixed
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Good
Valuation
Strong
Dividends
Mixed

Share count falling — buybacks

38.1% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 66.0M (2021) → 40.9M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

PROG Holdings runs a lease-to-own business, mostly through its main brand Progressive Leasing. It lets shoppers buy furniture, electronics, appliances, and other household goods without needing a credit card or traditional loan. The company partners with thousands of retail stores — both in-store and online — so customers who can't qualify for regular financing can still take home products and pay over time.

PROG makes money by purchasing the item from the retailer and then leasing it to the customer, collecting weekly or monthly payments that add up to more than the original cost. It operates almost entirely in the United States and serves millions of consumers who are considered "credit-challenged" — people with thin or poor credit histories. This underserved customer base is the core of its competitive position, but it also creates real risk: when the economy weakens and consumers fall behind on payments, default rates rise and profits can shrink quickly.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+1.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-4.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (7%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

3.7%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Runway

~12 months

$185M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Growth context

PROG Holdings is growing revenue at 1% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
43.2%
Healthy — 43.2% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
12.1%
Healthy — 12.1% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
13.7%
Good — 13.7% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+0.2%
Nearly flat sales (+0.2% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-29.3%
Earnings shrinking (-29.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
5/8 quarters
Mixed — about half the quarters showed growth

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
127%
Turns 127% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
6.8%
Modest free cash flow (6.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
1.10
Elevated debt (1.10)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
4.89x
Adequate interest coverage (4.9x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
10.6x
Attractive valuation — P/E 10.6

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+4.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (10.6 → 6.3)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
1.24%
Small dividend — 1.24% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+8.0%
Dividend growing modestly (8.0% YoY)

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