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Shoe Carnival

SCVL
46
Apparel - Retail · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$15.61
+0.07 (+0.45%)
Market Cap
$423.8M
Exchange
NASDAQ
Winston Score
46
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through May 2, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Weak
Growth
Weak
Cash Flow
Strong
Stability
Exceptional
Valuation
Strong
Dividends
Exceptional

Share count falling — buybacks

3.7% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 28.6M (2022) → 27.5M (2026)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Shoe Carnival is a retail chain that sells shoes for the whole family — men, women, and kids. It carries athletic shoes, boots, sandals, and dress shoes from brands like Nike, Adidas, and Skechers, and it targets value-conscious shoppers who want name-brand footwear at reasonable prices. The company operates mostly in mid-sized and smaller U.S. cities, where it faces less competition from big-city specialty retailers.

Shoe Carnival makes money by selling shoes directly to customers in its physical stores and through its website. As of recent fiscal periods, it operated around 400 stores across the U.S. and also owns the Shoe Station banner, a smaller regional chain it acquired in 2021. Its loyalty program, Shoe Perks, helps bring customers back repeatedly, which is a modest competitive advantage in a crowded market. The biggest risk the company faces is that consumers tend to cut back on discretionary spending — like new shoes — when the economy slows down or inflation stays high.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
33.3%
Modest — 33.3% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
-2.2%
Losing money on operations — -2.2%
Return on the money invested
ROCE
6.7%
Weak — 6.7% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-4.4%
Shrinking sales (-4.4% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-43.8%
Earnings shrinking (-43.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
1/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
279%
Turns 279% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
5.5%
Thin free cash flow (5.5%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.09
Conservative — low debt load (0.09)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
128.31x
Comfortably covers interest (128.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.5x
Attractive valuation — P/E 11.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+1.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
4.15%
Healthy income — 4.15% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+12.3%
Dividend growing fast (12.3% YoY)

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