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Transurban

TCL.AX
48
Industrial - Infrastructure Operations · Industrials
Price
A$13.95
-0.01 (-0.07%)
Market Cap
A$43.53B
Exchange
Australian Securities Exchange
Winston Score
48
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Mixed
Growth
Good
Cash Flow
Exceptional
Stability
Weak
Valuation
Good
Dividends
Exceptional

Share count rising — dilution

+4.2% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 2.99B (2022) → 3.12B (2026)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Transurban Group owns and operates toll roads in Australia and North America. Its main product is access to highways — drivers pay a fee to use faster, less congested routes. The company runs major road networks in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and the greater Washington D.C. area, making it one of the largest toll road operators in the world.

Transurban earns money by collecting tolls from millions of drivers every day, mostly through electronic tags linked to accounts. Revenue tends to grow steadily because toll prices are tied to inflation, which gives the business predictable cash flows. The company holds long-term government concession agreements — often lasting decades — which act as a strong barrier against competition. However, Transurban carries significant debt to fund its infrastructure assets, and its low return on invested capital reflects how capital-intensive this business is. The key growth driver is rising traffic volumes and winning new concession contracts, while higher interest rates remain the main financial risk.

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-2.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-62.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

A$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.2%ownership

Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

A$13.4B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Transurban's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
26.5%
Modest — 26.5% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
24.0%
Excellent — 24.0% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
4.2%
Weak — 4.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+3.8%
Slow sales growth (+3.8% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+175.2%
Earnings growing fast (+175.2% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
5/8 quarters
Mixed — about half the quarters showed growth

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
564%
Turns 564% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
48.7%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (48.7%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
2.70
Heavy debt load (2.70)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
1.30x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.3x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
118.7x
Expensive — P/E 118.7

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+52.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (118.7 → 66.5)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
4.92%
Healthy income — 4.92% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+11.7%
Dividend growing fast (11.7% YoY)

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