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Vistra

VST
34
Independent Power Producers · Utilities
Price
$136.21
-2.73 (-1.96%)
Market Cap
$45.93B
Winston Score
34
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.
Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026
How the score breaks down
Quality
Mixed
Growth
Weak
Cash Flow
Good
Stability
Data not available
Valuation
Strong
Dividends
Weak

Share count falling — buybacks

29.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 482.2M (2021) → 339.8M (2025)

Winston Score History

The full picture

Vistra Corp. is one of the largest electricity generators in the United States. It produces power using natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy sources like solar and wind. The company sells that electricity to homes, businesses, and wholesale energy markets, mainly across Texas, where it operates under the TXU Energy brand.

Vistra makes money by generating electricity and selling it at market prices, as well as through retail electricity plans sold directly to consumers. It operates in several U.S. states but has its heaviest presence in Texas, where the deregulated ERCOT power market allows it to compete for customers. The company's large nuclear fleet gives it a source of low-carbon, around-the-clock power that is hard to replicate quickly, which is a meaningful competitive advantage. The biggest risk Vistra faces is that its profits depend heavily on volatile wholesale electricity prices, which can swing sharply based on weather, fuel costs, and supply conditions.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
-18.8%
Thin — -18.8% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
30.5%
Excellent — 30.5% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
N/A
Data not available

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
-24.0%
Shrinking sales (-24.0% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
-63.7%
Earnings shrinking (-63.7% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
3/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
102%
Turns 102% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
-4.9%
Burning cash (-4.9%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
N/A
Data not available
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
N/A
Data not available

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
22.7x
Growth-priced — P/E 22.7

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
+10.5
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (22.7 → 12.2)

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
0.59%
Small dividend — 0.59% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+2.0%
Dividend flat

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