ZTO Express (Cayman)

ZTO

Integrated Freight & Logistics · Industrials

Exchange

New York Stock Exchange

Winston Score

Winston is curious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Data as of Aug 23, 2026 · filings through Mar 31, 2026

How the score breaks down

Quality

Mixed

Growth

Good

Cash Flow

Strong

Stability

Exceptional

Valuation

Good

Dividends

Mixed

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Winston Score History

The full picture

ZTO Express is one of China's largest parcel delivery companies. It picks up and delivers packages for online shoppers and e-commerce sellers, mainly through platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo. ZTO is a key part of China's massive e-commerce supply chain, handling billions of parcels every year.

ZTO makes money by charging fees for each package it delivers. It operates through a large network of independent partners — franchisees who handle local pickups and drop-offs — while ZTO runs the central sorting hubs and long-haul transportation. This "network partner" model keeps costs lower than running everything in-house, which is a core competitive advantage. ZTO operates almost entirely within China, and its scale gives it pricing power over smaller rivals. The main growth driver is continued growth in Chinese e-commerce volume, but the main risk is intense price competition among China's major express delivery companies, which can squeeze profit margins.

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+22.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+9.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

Insider Activity

0.9%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$38.9B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

ZTO Express (Cayman) is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 22%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale

Gross Margin

24.4%

Thin — 24.4% gross margin

Profit after running costs

Operating Margin

18.8%

Healthy — 18.8% operating margin

Return on the money invested

ROCE

12.3%

Good — 12.3% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales growth

Sales YoY

+13.3%

Fast-growing sales (+13.3% YoY)

Profit growth

EPS YoY

-0.7%

Earnings shrinking (-0.7% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

How steady the profit is

EPS Consistency

7/8 quarters

Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash

Cash Conversion

135%

Turns 135% of profit into real cash

Spare cash per sale

FCF Margin

8.3%

Modest free cash flow (8.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns

Debt / Equity

0.35

Conservative — low debt load (0.35)

Covers its interest

Interest Cover

58.63x

Comfortably covers interest (58.6x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit

P/E Ratio (TTM)

11.6x

no trend

Attractive valuation — P/E 11.6

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year

P/E vs Forward

+0.4

GROWING

Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Dividend

Dividend Yield

2.87%

no trend

Moderate income — 2.87% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record

Dividend Growth

-6.7%

no trend

Dividend cut (-6.7% YoY) — warning sign

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