Stock

Harley-Davidson

HOG

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

Also trades as: 0QYY.L GBP 0.29 (+2.70%)

Price

$29.11

+1.77 (+6.47%)

Market Cap

$3.03B

Winston Score

Winston is worried

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Data as of Oct 23, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

§How the score breaks down

Quality

Weak

7/30

Growth

Weak

1/20

Cash Flow

Weak

0/10

Stability

Strong

8/10

Valuation

Mixed

4/10

Ownership

Mixed

4/15

Dividends

Good

3/5

27 of 100 counted points = Winston Score 27.

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Share count falling — buybacks

−21.8% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 155.0M (2021) → 121.3M (2025)

§Winston Score History

The full picture

Harley-Davidson makes motorcycles. It is one of the most recognized motorcycle brands in the world, selling heavyweight bikes to adult riders, mostly in the United States. The company also sells related parts, accessories, and branded merchandise like clothing and helmets.

Harley makes money by selling motorcycles and parts directly through a network of dealerships. It also runs a financial services arm that offers loans to customers buying its bikes. Most revenue comes from North America, though the company sells in Europe and Asia too. Its main competitive advantage is brand loyalty — many Harley riders identify strongly with the brand and buy repeatedly. The biggest risk the company faces is its aging core customer base. Younger riders have shown less interest in large, expensive motorcycles, and Harley has struggled to grow sales with new generations despite efforts like its LiveWire electric motorcycle brand.

Politician Trades

7 trades / 12mo

5 Congressional buys and 2 sells on HOG in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale

Gross Margin

25.1%

Modest — 25.1% gross margin

Profit after running costs

Operating Margin

4.1%

Thin — 4.1% operating margin

Return on the money invested

ROCE

3.9%

Weak — 3.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales growth

Sales YoY

-8.1%

Shrinking sales (-8.1% YoY)

Profit growth

EPS YoY

-14.9%

Earnings shrinking (-14.9% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

How steady the profit is

EPS Consistency

1/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash

Cash Conversion

-0%

Weak — only -0% of profit becomes cash

Spare cash per sale

FCF Margin

-3.2%

Burning cash (-3.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns

Debt / Equity

0.74

Moderate — manageable debt (0.74)

Covers its interest

Interest Cover

19.32x

Comfortably covers interest (19.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit

P/E Ratio (TTM)

17.5x

Fair value — P/E 17.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year

P/E vs Forward

-22.7

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend

Dividend Yield

3.05%

Moderate income — 3.05% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend record

Dividend Growth

+4.2%

Dividend growing modestly (4.2% YoY)

Payout Ratio

41%

no trend

Pays out a modest share of profit and keeps the rest to reinvest. Room to keep paying through a weak year.

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