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The Progressive Corporation

PGR
69
Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services
Also trades as: 0KOC.L GBP 2.29 (+3.77%)
Price
$229.62
+8.27 (+3.74%)
Market Cap
$133.43B
Winston Score
69
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Oct 23, 2026 · filings through Sep 30, 2026

§How the score breaks down

Quality
Exceptional
26/30
Growth
Strong
15/20
Cash Flow
Exceptional
9/10
Stability
Exceptional
10/10
Valuation
Good
5/10
Ownership
Weak
1/15
Dividends
Good
3/5

69 of 100 counted points = Winston Score 69.

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§Winston Score History

The full picture

Progressive is one of the largest car insurance companies in the United States. It sells auto insurance directly to drivers — both personal and commercial — and also offers home, renters, and motorcycle insurance. It is the third-largest personal auto insurer in the country and is known for its direct-to-consumer model through its website, app, and the well-known Flo advertising campaign.

Progressive makes money by collecting insurance premiums from customers and investing those funds while paying out claims. It operates almost entirely in the United States and serves millions of individual drivers as well as businesses with vehicle fleets. Its main competitive advantage is its data-driven approach to pricing risk, which helps it price policies more accurately than many rivals. The key growth driver is continued expansion in homeowners insurance bundled with auto, but the main ongoing risk is that a spike in accident claims or repair costs can quickly squeeze profit margins.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+3.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-1.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (7%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.3%ownership

→ Flat

Insider ownership roughly steady over the past year

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$99.2B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

The Progressive Corporation is growing revenue at 3% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

+0.2% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 587.1M (2021) → 588.2M (2025)

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Profit per sale
Gross Margin
100.0%
Premium pricing power — 100.0% gross margin
Profit after running costs
Operating Margin
14.0%
Healthy — 14.0% operating margin
Return on the money invested
ROCE
34.3%
Exceptional — 34.3% return on capital

ROIC above 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns more than 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales growth
Sales YoY
+7.7%
Steady sales growth (+7.7% YoY)
Profit growth
EPS YoY
+8.9%
Earnings growing (+8.9% YoY)

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

How steady the profit is
EPS Consistency
7/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Profit that turns into cash
Cash Conversion
141%
Turns 141% of profit into real cash
Spare cash per sale
FCF Margin
17.4%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (17.4%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

What it owes vs what it owns
Debt / Equity
0.24
Conservative — low debt load (0.24)
Covers its interest
Interest Cover
46.79x
Comfortably covers interest (46.8x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

Price vs profit
P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.5x
Attractive valuation — P/E 11.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

Cheaper or dearer next year
P/E vs Forward
-0.3
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend
Dividend Yield
0.18%
Small dividend — 0.18% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend record
Dividend Growth
+183.7%
Dividend growing fast (183.7% YoY)
Payout Ratio
70%
no trend
Most of the profit goes out as dividends. Little left to reinvest, and less cushion if earnings dip.

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