Core inflation stuck at 3.3% as Warsh prepares to speak

Core PCE came in at 3.3% for the year. The Fed wants 2%. That gap is not shrinking.

And the 10-year Treasury yield, the interest rate the government pays to borrow for a decade, ticked up to 4.665%. If you've got a mortgage or a car loan, that moved against you. Stocks? The S&P 500 slipped 0.04% to 7,674.55. The Dow lost 0.21%. Nobody panicked.

The 10-year climbed to 4.665% from 4.638% the day before. The 30-year hit 5.33% last week, highest since 2007.

Citadel Securities says too many funds are betting long-term bond prices keep falling. When everyone piles onto the same side, the snap back can be fast and it can hurt. The Treasury has been buying back its own long-term bonds to push rates down, and it doubled the size of those operations earlier this month. Lasted one day. Yields climbed right back.

So you've got the government trying to push long-term rates down while the market keeps demanding higher ones, because federal debt just crossed $40 trillion and inflation is running at 3.4%.

Brent crude closed at $86.56 a barrel. Down from above $90 just 8 days ago. Iran and Oman discussed a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil.

3 straight days of falling prices. But no tankers have actually moved yet. And Ukraine hit Russia's 4th-largest oil refinery with a drone on Wednesday, which tightens supply going the other way. So which force wins? You watch whether ships start moving through the strait.

Core PCE rose 0.2% in July. Headline CPI still at 3.4%. The target is 2%. Not close.

Warsh held rates steady at the last meeting. But the July minutes showed more officials wanted to hike than the 3 who formally voted for one. 80% of economists in a CNBC survey want him to share more about where he thinks the economy is headed, and he speaks Friday at Jackson Hole.

What should you listen for? Whether he names a number for the neutral rate, which is the interest rate that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy. If he does, you know where he stands. If he doesn't, the bond market will decide for him.

Second-quarter GDP held at 1.5% in the revised estimate. Slowest since early 2025.

Some forecasters expect a bounce to around 3% this quarter. But consumer confidence slipped again in August, and spending just posted its weakest gain in 7 months. Does that bounce actually show up in your credit-card bills come September, or has something shifted?

Vanguard agreed to buy Altruist for $4 billion. Biggest deal it's ever done. Altruist is the software independent financial advisers use to open your accounts, run your trades, send your statements. Plumbing.

So why pay $4 billion for plumbing? Because every adviser on the platform becomes a potential buyer of Vanguard funds. That's distribution dressed up as technology.

Gold spot at $4,623.31, down from a previous close of $4,654.61. Silver spot at $68.79, up from $68.59. Copper at $6.62 per pound.

Gold near record levels while the dollar stays firm. Why would you hold that much gold if you trusted bonds completely?

Hochschild Mining beat earnings by 16.1%. Revenue $844 million, roughly flat to estimates, but EPS hit $0.36 against $0.31. Gross margin jumped 20 points year on year to 56.7%. Higher metal prices did the work.

Williams-Sonoma beat on revenue at $2.0 billion and EPS at $2.10. Gross margin hit 51.6%, up nearly 8 points from Q1. Raised full-year guidance. Stock still dipped.

Kohl's earned $1.28 per share versus $0.58 estimated. More than double. But a tariff refund worth about $0.65 per share did a lot of that. Stock fell 1.7% after hours.

TORM beat on revenue at $512 million, missed on EPS at $3.25. Gulf Keystone crushed estimates, revenue up 32.6% on restarted production in Kurdistan. UP Fintech beat revenue by 18.4% with gross margins above 93%, but free cash flow showed 0.0% across recent quarters.

Jackson Hole dominates the rest of the week. Warsh delivers his first keynote Friday. Whether he signals a September hike or stays vague will move your borrowing costs either way, because if he says nothing, traders may push yields higher on their own. The next Treasury buyback operation is worth tracking after the last one bought a single day of relief.

Issue compiled from the Wednesday, 26 August 2026 desk notes. Page published Friday, 25 September 2026. Metal prices are spot at the time of writing. Figures come from the sources set out in the editorial standards. Corrections: [email protected].

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