The daily paper

One issue for every trading day: bonds, stocks, oil, the Fed, trade, gold and the earnings covered that day, written to you and signed by the editor.

Edited by Felix Nikolas Prehn, Economist and Editor · About Winston Daily · RSS

September 2026

Government borrowing costs hit a 19-year high and stocks do not careFriday, 25 September 2026The 10-year Treasury rate reached 5.18% on Friday, its steepest since 2007, while all three major indexes climbed anyway.
Government borrowing costs hit highest since 2007 as oil tops 107 dollarsThursday, 24 September 2026The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.163% while Brent crude jumped 4.1% on fears the Iran conflict could widen, and stocks did absolutely nothing.
Borrowing costs hit a level not seen since 2007Tuesday, 15 September 2026Oil broke past $105 on a Saudi pipeline attack and the 10-year rate touched 5%, so stocks fell hard.
US borrowing costs hit 5% for the first time since 2007Monday, 14 September 2026A Saudi pipeline went dark, oil jumped past $106, and the Fed is expected to raise rates on Wednesday into all of it.
Oil above 100 and borrowing costs near 5% as the Fed meets WednesdaySunday, 13 September 2026Saudi Arabia's backup oil route is shut, your pay is losing to prices, and a rate rise looks all but done.
Stocks rallied Friday on cheaper oil and nothing elseSaturday, 12 September 2026The Dow gained 509 points while consumer confidence sank to 47.8, near historic lows, and core inflation ran hotter than expected.
Dow up 500 points but consumer confidence near historic lowsFriday, 11 September 2026Stocks bounced on cheaper oil and on-target inflation while the Michigan sentiment survey dropped to 47.8, well below forecast.
Oil hits 108 and the 10-year yield is a nickel from 5 percentThursday, 10 September 2026Brent jumped 7 percent as fighting reached Gulf shipping lanes, wholesale prices printed their hottest gain in 3 months.
Oil tops 100 dollars and the Treasury's 6 billion dollar intervention falls flatWednesday, 9 September 2026Brent crude hit $101.65 on U.S.-Iran fighting, the government tried buying back its own bonds to bring borrowing costs down, and rates rose anyway.
Oil at 99 dollars drags the Dow down 628 pointsTuesday, 8 September 2026Brent jumped 3% after Houthi strikes on Saudi sites, and Friday's inflation print lands in 3 days.
Oil at $97 and a surprise jobs report point the same wayMonday, 7 September 2026The 10-year Treasury rate closed at 4.784% and traders now price 60% odds of the first Fed rate hike in over a year.
Jobs triple the forecast and diesel hits a recordSunday, 6 September 2026Hiring ran hot, diesel broke $5.85 a gallon, and now Wednesday's inflation print decides whether you pay more to borrow.
162000 jobs and the Fed meets in 11 daysSaturday, 5 September 2026August payrolls came in at 3 times the forecast, and bond traders now price a better than 58% chance of a rate hike.
Payrolls tripled forecasts and borrowing costs hit levels last seen in 2008Friday, 4 September 2026August hiring came in at 162,000 against forecasts of 55,000, pushing rate-hike odds to 58% and the 10-year US government borrowing rate to 4.785%.
Gold jumps 2% on a day stocks pretend everything is fineThursday, 3 September 2026One Fed governor wants to hold rates steady, but oil past $96 and a ballooning trade gap say the argument is far from settled.
Stocks climb but 30-year borrowing costs hit pre-2008 levelsWednesday, 2 September 2026The S&P 500 gained half a percent to 7,667 while the interest rate on 30-year government debt pushed back toward 5.2%, a level not seen since before the financial crisis.
Oil past 95 and the 10-year at 4.80 on the same dayTuesday, 1 September 2026Brent crude jumped 5% in the seventh week of the Hormuz blockade while government borrowing costs hit a 20-month high and stocks sold off.

August 2026

Oil blows past $90 and the reserve is nearly emptyMonday, 31 August 2026Brent jumped nearly 3% on fresh US-Iran strikes while the government's emergency oil stash sits at historic lows and rate-hike odds climb past 60%.
Warsh floats a rate hike while hiring gets worseSunday, 30 August 2026The 30-year government borrowing cost hit 5.19%, its highest since 2001, and August payrolls slowed again with 79,000 prior jobs wiped from the books.
Bonds heard Warsh but stocks just shruggedSaturday, 29 August 2026Rate-hike odds nearly doubled to 60% after the Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech, yet the S&P 500 dipped a quarter of a percent.
Warsh warns rates may rise and the S&P barely blinksFriday, 28 August 2026The Fed chair said inflation is not slowing fast enough, but stocks hardly moved while gold near record highs says someone is nervous.
Nvidia drags stocks higher while the rest gets uglyThursday, 27 August 2026One chip stock lifted the Nasdaq 1.5%, but wheat, copper, oil and a Fed official calling for a hike say otherwise.
Core inflation stuck at 3.3% as Warsh prepares to speakWednesday, 26 August 2026Consumer spending posted its slowest gain in 7 months, but the Fed's preferred price gauge did not budge from well above target.
Markets look calm but a fragility gauge just maxed outTuesday, 25 August 2026The S&P 500 drifted higher to 7,677 while a Wall Street turbulence indicator hit its ceiling for the first time in 8 months.
Gold keeps climbing and nobody on the equity desk seems to careMonday, 24 August 2026Spot gold pushed to $4,679.89 an ounce while the S&P 500 barely flinched, even as 50% tariffs hit Canadian goods and Iran sanctions landed on the calendar.