Oil hits 108 and the 10-year yield is a nickel from 5 percent

Brent crude jumped 7% to $108.38 on Thursday. Ten days ago it was near $90. That kind of move changes what you pay for petrol, flights, groceries.

And the 10-year Treasury yield, the interest rate the government pays to borrow for a decade, hit 4.945%. Stocks sold off. S&P 500 down 0.58% to 7,592. Dow lost 317 points. Nasdaq dropped 0.65%.

A week ago the yield was near 4.8%. Now it's 4.945%. If you're borrowing for a house, that gap decides what you pay every month for the next 30 years.

Traders now price a 70% chance the Fed raises rates next Wednesday. That's up from 62% the day before. A week ago it was barely even odds. And the market sees a second hike before year-end as possible.

But can the Fed really raise rates when oil is doing half the inflation work? A rate hike won't put a single extra barrel on the water.

Attacks on Gulf shipping lanes were the most intense since the conflict began. And President Trump said the war with Iran would not end until after November's midterm elections. So if you were hoping for a quick resolution, the White House itself told you not to expect one.

Diesel hit $5.97 a gallon in the week ending 7 September. A record. Almost every product in a store rode a truck to get there, and that truck ran on diesel that just got more expensive than it has ever been.

If tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows further, $108 is the floor.

Producer prices, what factories and warehouses pay before goods reach you, rose 0.4% in August. Biggest monthly jump in 3 months. Year over year they're up 5.4%.

Tomorrow's consumer price report is the second half of the picture the Fed sees before it votes on Wednesday. If that print comes in hot, the 70% hike probability goes higher.

Trump pledged $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans keep both chambers in November. Roughly 260 million people. Well over a trillion dollars.

It landed on the worst possible day for it. A trillion-dollar spending pledge while the 10-year yield is hitting a 3-year high, pushing in the exact opposite direction of everything the Fed is trying to do. Who benefits from you believing that promise? Republican candidates in tight races, 8 weeks before you vote.

The ECB is roughly a coin flip to raise rates in October. When 2 of the world's biggest central banks lean toward higher rates at the same time, borrowing costs rise everywhere.

An EU watchdog warned stretched stock valuations could snap lower. Regulators like to look vigilant before a crash, not after one. But that doesn't mean they're wrong. And if you can earn nearly 5% lending money to the US government for a decade, what return do you need from stocks at 19.5 times future earnings to justify the risk?

Gold's spot price at time of writing was $4,314.58, down from a previous close of $4,394.09. Silver spot $63.28, off from $67.05. Copper $6.52 a pound.

Inflation fears rising and gold falling. When yields climb, bonds pay you more. Gold pays you nothing. So gold is losing the argument to the bond market today.

RH beat earnings estimates by 612.4%. $2.70 a share against the $0.38 expected. Gross margin jumped to 48.2%, revenue $922 million, up 15.3% from last quarter.

Adobe posted $6.8 billion in revenue, beating by 1.0%, earnings of $6.13 a share. The number from the call: 100 million free users. What do you do with 100 million free users? You convert them.

Vince Holding crushed its earnings estimate by 284.9%, gross margin hitting 60.9%, up more than 10 points in a single quarter. Stock still fell 1.9% after hours. IBEX beat on revenue and earnings at $164 million. And Tsakos Energy beat earnings by 7.2% while absorbing 26 new ships worth $3.2 billion.

Friday's consumer price report is the last inflation number the Fed sees before it votes on 16 September. A hot print probably pushes the 10-year through 5% and locks in the first rate hike since 2023. The oil price, the hike odds, what your mortgage costs next month, all of it follows from that single number.

Issue compiled from the Thursday, 10 September 2026 desk notes. Page published Saturday, 26 September 2026. Metal prices are spot at the time of writing. Figures come from the sources set out in the editorial standards. Corrections: [email protected].

Previous issue (9 Sept 2026) · Next issue (11 Sept 2026) · All issues