Payrolls tripled forecasts and borrowing costs hit levels last seen in 2008

The economy added 162,000 jobs in August. Forecasters guessed 55,000. Three times the guess.

So stocks fell, bond prices dropped again, and traders now put a 58% chance on the Fed raising rates on 16 September. Diesel set an all-time record at $5.85 a gallon. Brent crude sat at $95.90. And the rate the US government pays to borrow for 10 years closed at 4.785%, a number not seen since 2008.

If you have a mortgage, a car loan, any debt at all, your cost tracks that number.

Thursday the Dow jumped 580 points because traders thought the Fed would hold steady. One day. That's how long it lasted.

Friday the S&P 500 fell 0.39% to 7,717.81. The Dow dropped 272 points to 53,414.25. And the Nasdaq slipped to 26,507.

Now a separate report earlier in the week said private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, but the government's own count came in 4 times higher at 162,000, and nobody has explained where the extra jobs came from. So you'd be right to squint at the headline number.

But the market didn't squint. It sold.

Germany's 10-year borrowing cost recently hit a 15-year high. The US 10-year has closed above levels not seen since 2008 for 4 straight days. And the 30-year is near 5.2%.

Governments everywhere are selling enormous amounts of debt. Buyers want more interest to take it. Treasury Secretary Bessent defended US bonds at the G20 this week, and bond buybacks, where the government buys back its own debt early, haven't stopped the slide.

So who keeps lending at these prices? Nobody at the G20 had an answer.

Brent crude closed at $95.90. It hasn't traded below $90 since late August. Persian Gulf exports are running at roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, and there have been at least 4 rounds of US-Iran strikes in a week with no ceasefire.

$5.85 a gallon for diesel. A year ago you paid $3.71. That's close to 60% more. In California, $7.70.

And Ryanair cut its winter schedule because jet fuel is near $140 a barrel, roughly double what airlines paid 2 years ago. So if you buy groceries or fly anywhere or order anything that rides on a truck, the oil price is already showing up in what you pay.

Chair Warsh has signalled openness to a hike at least 4 times since late August. Governor Barr said on 1 September he'd back one if inflation doesn't ease.

But Governor Waller broke ranks on Thursday. He favours holding steady.

And then there's JPMorgan's top global strategist saying no hike this year, while bond futures price 58%. Somebody is very wrong. You'll know who in about a week.

Now President Trump told the Fed to cut rates, or he'd stop trading with every country that sells more to the US than it buys, which is dozens of nations, and the trade gap hit $88.6 billion in July alone. But the jobs data gave Warsh exactly the ammunition to do the opposite.

$29.6 billion. That's what ByteDance just borrowed from nearly 30 banks, confirmed Friday, roughly $1 billion per lender, to fund an AI push while the company stays private and based in Beijing.

Can you actually get your money back from a private company caught between 2 governments? That's what you'd want to know if you ran one of those banks. But the interest rate ByteDance pays hasn't been disclosed. So you can't tell whether the banks charged enough for the risk or just grabbed the fee.

Gold spot at $4,429.83, down from a previous close of $4,479.83. About a 1.1% drop. Higher rates make gold less attractive because you earn nothing holding it.

But gold is still near record levels. And the VIX, which measures how much the stock market expects to swing, is dozing at 14.53. Calm stocks and expensive gold at the same time. What does that tell you? Maybe that bond traders and gold buyers see something the equity market doesn't.

Silver spot at $65.99, down from $66.82. Copper at $6.68 per pound.

Daktronics reported Q1 FY2027 results. Revenue $235 million, 1.9% above estimates. Earnings $0.40 per share against a $0.35 forecast.

Gross margin hit 30.5%, up from 24.0% two quarters ago. And free cash flow margin, how much cash the business keeps from each dollar of sales, swung from negative 4.6% last quarter to positive 11.6% now. Net income doubled to $19 million.

Stock barely moved after hours.

August inflation data comes out on 11 September, and the Fed meets 5 days later on 16 September. Warsh has built his case for a hike, Waller has pushed back, and JPMorgan says no hike at all. One number sorts all of them out.

Issue compiled from the Friday, 4 September 2026 desk notes. Page published Friday, 25 September 2026. Metal prices are spot at the time of writing. Figures come from the sources set out in the editorial standards. Corrections: [email protected].

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